on Jan 6th, 2008Real estate opportunities today

well we’ve come a long way …I doubt too many people won’t acknowledge that we have a burst bubble situation…and when we started, many folks wouldn’t even agree we were in a bubble at all.

One of the requirements for a bubble is widespread public participation. The bubble has a long run-up and towards the end it goes almost straight up. Much of the bubble money is tantalizingly to be made then (2005), but the people who try to ride that wave are too late.

What fuels a bubble? The requirement is simple: cheap credit. Government fueled credit. Government fueled money.

When that is gone, the bubble pops. And it doesn’t come back. Bubbles take many, many years to recover.

But we have to look at two types of home prices. What are called “real” prices are the prices of homes in constant, inflation-adjusted dollars. Nominal prices are the prices in current US dollars.

If we look at house prices on an inflation adjusted (real) basis, they will fall for 15 - 20 years.

If we look at them in nominal prices, they will fall for 2 - 4 years. The bottom will be reached somewhere in 2009 or perhaps 2010.

Bottoms are harder to call than tops. I called the top of the market many times and was wrong many times. I did in fact get out of all real estate in July, 2005, which turns out to have been great timing.

But that was kinda luck. I would have sold in 2004 if I had been able to.

Bottoms are easier to call. How can you call a bottom? Sentiment. When everyone hates real estate and everyone “knows” you can *never* make money in real estate, it will be time to buy.

Now I will say something that may shock you. I believe in real estate. It is a wonderful hedge against the dollar which eventually will fall to zero value.

The US$ is depreciating at 8% or 10% per year these days, contrary to the false US government reports. So if you own real estate, you can at least hedge because you are paying back a big loan in cheaper and cheaper dollars.

I wouldn’t be a “buy and hold” investor right now, but I do see opportunity in real estate even now.

Here’s one: you can option properties and  then use the nine day selling method to sell houses fast. I know of no other method that lets you sell your house nine days from today, without a broker, at top dollar, even when there are allegedly “no buyers”.

Another way you can make money in some areas is buy at today’s distressed prices and rent the house out. You can buy a house with no money down and no qualifying even if you have bad credit.

I have written a complete home study course that tells you how to negotiate lower payments on your existing loan without refinancing, how to do a short sale so you can sell your house and walk away with good credit even if you have messed up your credit and even if you owe more than your house is worth. I teach you how to sell any house in nine days without fixup, how to slash your credit card debts outside of bankruptcy in a way that actually improves your FICO credit score, and how  to buy with no money down and no credit. Click here to order a home trial of my home study course, Mortgage Relief Formula, just paying the shipping and handling.

Or if you prefer enter your name and email and I will give you instant access to my acclaimed free 25 page report Keep Your Home. I will email you information that is too sensitive to post publicly on debt reduction and mortgage relief. I never share your name with anyone, ever, and you can leave my list by clicking a single link whenever you want.

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